Twenty-four points. That was the difference at the end of the first quarter, in favor of the Indianapolis Colts. The Texans were all but finished, with just a seven percent chance of winning, per Advanced Football Analytics' calculator.
It was then that defensive end J.J. Watt took it upon himself to show America what J.J. Watt is like on a weekly basis.
After taking a fumble recovery in for a touchdown—his third of the season—the Texans suddenly went from trailing 24-0 to trailing by just five points. In a year where every six points is hard to come by for Houston, Watt has clearly been the league's most dominant player, if not worthy of the most "valuable" distinction because he doesn't play quarterback. The way things are going for Houston, maybe he should.
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I know we're supposed to bask in this. And if you are a Texans fan, you should—Watt is a once-in-a-generation player—but there is a reason why quarterbacks often win MVP awards. Quarterbacks are the most impactful players on the field, no matter how often J.J. Watt can make you think otherwise.
The Texans went 2-14 last year with Watt. They are 3-3 this year with him. The problem here is not Watt. The problem is that, about 25 games after Matt Schaub began to lose his ability to be a solid quarterback, Houston hasn't filled the quarterback chair adequately yet.
Placeholder Ryan Fitzpatrick played—for Ryan Fitzpatrick—a hell of a game. Fitzpatrick was placing balls in the right position for receivers Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins to go outleap defenders, which is the best he can do. Despite the game-ending fumble, which occurred because Fitzpatrick was holding on to the ball too long to try to make something happen, this is the upper bounds of Fitzpatrick's quarterback play. This was his ceiling.
And, because Houston dug themselves into a large hole, with Fitzpatrick shoveling up three-and-outs left and right, there just wasn't enough time to climb out of it. No matter the heroics Watt was providing.
There is reason for optimism in Houston in the long-term. We've seen plenty of examples of teams packing it in after falling behind early during Thursday Night Football, and Houston bucked the trend. The Texans have a quartet of stars in Watt, Johnson, Hopkins and running back Arian Foster. Head coach Bill O'Brien has made some snafus in game theory, as most coaches usually do, but the fact that he's getting this level of play out of Fitzpatrick is actually remarkable.
But all those things can only drag a shallow roster with a bad quarterback so far. The jury on the Colts as serious AFC contenders hasn't been written yet, but it was clear that their similarly-shallow roster could be dragged a lot further with quarterback Andrew Luck and his receiving weapons.
There's little reason to bench Fitzpatrick. Backup Ryan Mallett is what he is. Fourth-round rookie quarterback Tom Savage looked completely inept in the preseason and has yet to even be active on game day yet.
The NFL is just a league where inferior quarterback play is hard to overcome. Houston was in middle-class purgatory with Schaub (before he broke), and they're in lower-class purgatory with Fitzpatrick.
